Scottsdale Real Estate Market Statistics

Monthly Sales Scottsdale

Some people would ask, “if the number of homes being sold is increasing, and the number of homes on the market is decreasing, isn’t the reduced supply causing the price point to increase?”

It is, in some areas. The law of supply and demand is hard at work here in the Scottsdale market, just as it is in the rest of the Greater Phoenix Metro area. The reason the prices continue to fall is because of the quality of the homes that are on the market, not the quantity. Bank owned properties are being liquidated, and the investors are snatching them up because they know that real estate is on sale. Bank owned, or REO properties tend to sit and for a better lack of terms, rot, and when a cash investor comes to the table, the banks are very eager to take a decent offer, even if it means taking an additional discount to have cash in hand.

REAL ESTATE IS ON SALE! The doom and gloom has instilled fear into the hearts of many, and as a result, the market values have fallen below a normal value, which means they WILL bounce back, but not to the levels that you may think. The market will equalize, as long as our government stops screwing around with it.

Below are some snapshots of the current market conditions as of Thursday, July 2nd, 2009:

Active Listings Scottsdale

Monthly Median Sales Price Scottsdale

Monthly Pending Listings Scottsdale

Monthly Sales Scottsdale

To view statistics on Queen Creek, visit Jamie Geiger’s most recent statistics update.

Get Off The Couch and Look Out Belay

This is me conquering a fear.

All of Wednesday had me thinking about overcoming a fear that I never would have chosen to overcome.  When we’re faced with fear without choosing, and we stand up and push through it, we grow.  It’s even better when we choose to face something we’re afraid of, or even when we try something we never knew we’d be afraid of.

A little voice inside my head today told me that I would be fine; that I wouldn’t get nervous, and that I would be able to perform just like I envisioned I would.

As much as I tried to fight the feelings of apprehension, they were still there, but I pushed through, and by the time the night had ended, I was scaling the very same wall I started on twice as fast as the first time.

This is me conquering a fear.

This is me conquering a fear.

I never considered indoor rock climbing to be something I would ever be interested in doing, but tonight, I learned how to do so at the suggestion of my closest friend from my high school days.  After 9 years we reconnected as a direct result of Facebook (for those of you who find no value in it…think again) and spent the entire night catching up and climbing in the gym.

Belay (be-lay [bi-lay]) -verb: 1.  To secure a person by attaching to one end of a rope.  2. To keep your friend from falling to their death.

I learned both how to climb, and how to belay, which also means to stop.  One person climbs, one person stands anchored to the floor, and anchored to the rope that keeps your partner from falling.  While one climbs, the other takes up the slack and secures the rope after the climber’s forward progress.  It’s all about teamwork, and it’s great exercise.  The coolest part about it is that once you learn to trust the harness and your partner, it doesn’t matter how high the wall is.

There’s something about an activity that requires the work of two people and that involves putting your complete trust in that person to ensure you are secured.  I can’t quite describe it.  Perhaps the right word is Synergy.  There’s also something to be said for life-long friends who can pick up right where you left off.

So here’s to rock climbing, friends, fitness, and overcoming silly fears.

Real Estate Trends, Market Update

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As of April 3rd, the number of available Single Family Detached homes in the Valley dropped by 4%, which is a significant change over previous months, to a recent record low of roughly 35,000 homes.  The number of closings increased to nearly 7500 over the past month bringing the current inventory on hand to roughly 4.5 months.  This is indicative of a Seller’s Market, not a buyer’s market.

The most amazing statistic of recent is the 10% increase in the number of pending sales on the market.  People are buying, and it’s not the media.  The media is still at least 2 months behind the curve, so if you depend on the media to make your decisions, you’re losing ground.  Talk to a professional, or subscribe to my blog to stay on top of what’s happening NOW, not two months from now.

In Phoenix and the West Valley, we’re at a 3.25 months supply.  Houses are selling like hot-cakes again.  Does this mean it’s time to panic and make a poor financial decision about purchasing a home when you may not be able to afford it?  Nope.  It means that if you have the means to purchase a home, now is the time to do it.

The Scottsdale market, which has been extremely stagnant in the under $1Million market actually doubled the number of pendings.  Paradise Valley, the pinnacle of ownership in Phoenix, is still holding at a 7 year inventory.  Own a home in PV?  You may own it for a while.  Drop your price if you absolutely must sell.  Closings should increase as pendings have increased, but those are the facts.

While it may be a good thing to hear the media spouting off about the improving market, most of what they tell you is outdated, and not represented well.  Many statistics are taken out of context, and the underlying truths about what they’re telling you are never revealed.

Karl Stauffer reports the following statistics:

Overall Market. Inventories are down 4% from last week. Total of 35394 active listings with 7461 closings in the last month. About a 4 3/4 month supply.

Phoenix. Inventories are down 5% from last week. Total of 7880 active listings with 2140 closings in the last month. About a 3 3/4 month supply.

West Valley. Inventories are down 6% from last week. Total of 8482 active listings with 2218 closings in the last month. About a 3 3/4 month supply.
NE Valley.
Inventories are down 2% from last week. Total of 5510 active listings with 354 closings in the last month. About a 15 1/2 month supply.

SE Valley. Inventories are down 3% from last week. Total of 8048 active listings with 1848 closings in the last month. About a 4 1/4 month supply.

Scottsdale over $1m. Inventories are down 2% from last week. Total of 1423 active listings with 36 closings in the last month. About a 39 1/2 month supply.

Scottsdale under $1m. Inventories are down 2% from last week. Total of 2419 active listings with 225 closes in the last month. About a 10 3/4 month supply.

ParadiseValley. Inventories are down 1% from last week. Total of 574 active listings wih 6 closes in the last month. About a 96 month supply.

Should I Buy a New Or Used Car?

Used.  Always used.  Buying a new car is one of the worst financial decisions I have ever made.

Monthly Payment

The monthly payment is the first thing that everyone looks at when they finance a car.  Why?  Because they live in a cash flow mentality.  In this economy, cash is king.  If you don’t have it, you can’t spend it.  If you can’t spend it, you can’t make it.  If you can’t make it, you won’t have it, and the circle continues.

If you’re thinking about a monthly payment, and any portion of that payment is going to be paid to anyone other than yourself (in other words, the bank), then you’ve already lost the battle, because you’re headed into debt.  There may be a reasonable explanation for why you’re seeking financing for something you don’t have enough cash to purchase up front, but my advice to you is to completely avoid it altogether.  In order to succeed at this, you will have to radically change your idea of what you should be driving.  One of the mistakes people make when they consider their monthly payment on a new or used car is how much it really is going to cost them every month.  The monthly payment every month is only the financed amount, and it hides all of the other expenses you’ll incur throughout the life of the car.

Since I’m such a nice guy, I’ll go ahead and lay out my stupidity (Dave Ramsey calls what I’m about to explain a “stupid tax”) for all to see, with no holds barred.

My Stupid New Car Buying Experience

In March of 2008, I purchased a new Honda CR-V, loaded.  The only feature I didn’t buy was the All Wheel Drive.  Big deal.  So what did my car cost?  The sticker price was $27,895.  Divide this by 72 and you have a monthly payment of $387.00, right?  Wrong.

When you buy a new car, you have to add to it the document fee, which in my case was $368.00, sales tax, which was $2259.50, and title and registration, which was another $514.71.  These are just the up front fees.  Then there’s the finance charge.  My loan was at 7.9%, which over a period of 72 months is $8162.47.

Add all of these up, and the price of the car goes up to $39139.68.  Divide that by 72 and you have a monthly payment of  $544.00.  But is that the total cost of owning the car?  No.

In the first year, the car depreciates roughly $4200.00, so for the first year, you’re paying $544 per month plus $4200.00 divided by the first year (12 months) or $350.00.  Color me stupid, but that’s $894.00/month.  Add insurance at $1200/year and that’s another $100/month.  Now we’re up to $994.00/month.  Fuel for me last year, as a REALTOR, was $2937.00.  That’s $244.00/month.

My vehicle, which appears to be costing me only $544/month (which by the way, is ridiculous and I should be stabbed through the eye with the very pen I signed with) is actually costing me $1238/month in real money!

The following is from Edmunds.com.  It shows what you can expect to be the real cost of owning a 2009 Honda CR-V.

.

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 5-Year Total

.

Depreciation $4277 $2729 $2402 $2130 $1911 $13449

.

Financing $1801 $1455 $1082 $680 $247 $5265

.

Insurance $1258 $1302 $1348 $1395 $1416 $6719

.

Taxes & Fees $2439 $374 $313 $262 $220 $3608

.

Fuel $1996 $2056 $2118 $2182 $2247 $10599

.

Maintenance $93 $546 $359 $872 $1108 $2978

.

Repairs $0 $0 $105 $254 $373 $732

.

.

Yearly Totals $11864 $8462 $7727 $7775 $7522 $43350

The Used Car Buying Experience

Let’s assume that I decided way back at the beginning, that I would be satisfied with driving the half-way okay car that I had which was completely paid off and only representive a small amount of “inconvenience” in my life.  No NAV, no fancy leather, no sun-roof…etc.  Big deal right?  Right.  Now, with a paid for car, the bank is getting nothing.

At the time, my truck was worth $8000.00.  That actually means that I could have moved from the truck into a car that was more conducive to showing property for the same price, or perhaps a bit less.  But, I would have been able to set my sights on that newer car without losing $1238/month.

Here’s how it starts.  For 10 months, I would sock away $544.00 every month in my own savings account.  Hey, I was willing to pay it to the bank, so why not just pay myself?  After 10 months, I have $5440.00.  Now I trade my $8000.00 truck, which would still have been holding its value, in to a used car dealer for a car that costs $13,440.00 (That’s $8000.00 + $5440.00.)  Not bad.  Yet again, I save for 10 months an additional $5440.00 and I trade my most recent car in for another car at the price of $18,880.00.  20 months into the process I’m driving a fairly nice used car.  Keep in mind, I’m never buying new cars through this process and I’m always upgrading to cars that are holding their value, like a Honda or Toyota.  For another 10 months, I save an additional $5440.00 and I trade my $18,880.00 car in for a used $24,320.00 car.  30 months have gone by and I haven’t paid the bank a red cent, and every 10 months I get to upgrade to a newer car, and not only that, but the $24,000 car I’m in now, was purchased by someone else NEW just 3 years earlier for a whole lot more than $24,320.  Let the first owner take the depreciation.  Let’s do it again.  10 more months of saving $544/month for another $5440.00 and I’m now able to trade in for a $29,760.00 car, paid for, IN FULL!

If you’ll recall, the price of my new Honda CR-V was $27,895.00.  It’s been 40 months or 3.3 years, it’s 2011, and I can actually now purchase that 2008, loaded CR-V with miles on it, for much less than its original sticker price.  In fact, that car that I had to have last year, would probably cost me under $20,000 in 2011, and would have all of the same features!

This is an absolute no brainer.  When you buy a new car, you lose, no matter what.  If you’re in a financial position to be able to take that loss, in other words, if you have the money to blow, then you can buy a new car, but you lose.  It’s a mathematical fact.  Most of us do not have that money because we jump in before we look at the facts.  So here’s where I am now, as a result of my impatience.  I have a one-year-old car with 20K miles that’s worth about $22,000.  My monthly payment is $544, but as we’ve seen, the actual cost of ownership this first year has been over $1200/month.  I still owe $27,000 on the car, which is a hair under the sticker price, and the only way out is to sell it and take a note for the difference.

Instead of having a paid for Honda CR-V in 40 months, I have to get rid of it and take an $8000.00 loss, which means I’ll be paying off nothing for a while.  Are you as stupid as me?

Christmas Tree Safety

For a majority of my life I have had a fake Christmas tree at Christmas time.  For the most part, the hazards were minimal.  In fact, the tree was rated as fire-retardant.  Through a few pets, including a parakeet who used the lights as a perch to a rat who chewed through the lights one year, we have never experienced a tree fire.  Thankfully.  But, that’s probably due to the fact that we had no watering to maintain.

In 2000, I had my first real tree and I learned how important it was to water the tree regularly.

  • Make sure you water your tree regularly.  In Arizona, which is a very dry state, it’s critical to keep it flowing.
  • If the tree isn’t cut properly at the bottom of the trunk, there won’t be enough absorption.  Make sure you slice an inch or so off the bottom.
  • Check the tree daily to make sure the needles are healthy and moist.  When they start to fall off, you know that your tree may be dying from lack of water.
  • Make sure your lights are in good condition.  Keep anything that could spark a fire away from the tree.
  • When you take the tree down, make sure you dispose of it as soon as possible so it doesn’t hang around drying out becoming a hazard.

The speed at which a dry tree ignites will baffle you.  Take a look at the video in the player to the right.

Proper safety will ensure you have many more years of Holiday cheer.  Happy Holidays.

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Data last updated 5/18/12 8:58 AM PDT.

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